The question of who qualifies as evangelicals and the number of evangelicals around the world continues to confuse scholars, church leaders and mission researchers alike. It is the central theme of the September 2 webinar, hosted by the World Evangelical Alliance and published on September 5th, featuring two major voices in the global religious demographic.
Dr. Gina A. Zurro, editor of the World Christian Database and lecturer at Harvard Seminary, and Jason Mandrick, a longtime editor at Operations World, outlined both the difficulties and needs to measure movements that are increasingly diversifying and rapidly shifting towards the global South.
Both experts agreed that unlike Catholic, Orthodox, or Pentecostalism, evangelicalism does not have a universally agreed definition. This makes the task of counting supporters unusually complicated. However, they emphasized that credible numbers are important to understand how Christianity is changing around the world.
Mandrik opened up with a dull assessment: “There is nothing like an evangelical.”
According to him, the word has multiple meanings depending on the context. Within the church it may indicate theological commitment to the Bible, personal conversion, and authority of evangelistic activities. It is often used lightly in secular contexts, particularly in Western media and politics. It constitutes an image of anti-science attitudes, stubbornness, or partisan identity.
“Virtually no one uses it exactly the same,” Mandrik explained. “And most people aren’t trying to understand how others use it.”
Reflecting the issue, Zurlo pointed out that “knowing Catholic, Presbyterian or Pentecostal, but the term evangelical remains “squeeze.” For her, this ambiguity is not necessarily a weakness, it is a sociological reality that requires a more descriptive approach rather than a rigid definition.
Why numbers are important
Both speakers emphasized that counting evangelicals is not a perpetual judgment on salvation. “We are not God,” Zurlo said. Instead, the aim is to track demographic changes that have a significant impact on the global Christian form.
“Christianity and evangelicalism look fundamentally different from before the generation,” she said. “And each generation changes, especially with the global transition of Christianity towards the South.”
Mandrik added that evangelicalism is one of the most important forces that shape modern Christianity. Its global reach has Christians united in missions and prayers, but they separated them through conflicts over doctrine, politics and culture. Quantifying exercise is one way to understand its impact, he said.
Operation World’s Method: Bebbington Quadrilateral
In the world of operations, the starting point is the influential account of historian David Bevington’s evangelicalism, often referred to as the Bevington Quadrilateral. This framework highlights four central characteristics:
The first is biblicalism, and the belief that the Bible holds the highest authority in matters of faith and practice. The second is cross-heartedism, focusing on the sacrificial death of Christ on the Cross as the heart of the gospel message. The third is conversionism, the belief that every individual must personally experience new births and transformations through faith in Christ. Finally, the fourth is activism, emphasizing that true faith should be brought into action, particularly through evangelism and involvement in social causes.
Mandrik explained that his team will apply these standards to all national denominations and examine statements of faith, practice and affiliation. They also consult national leaders and researchers to reflect local reality.
This approach results in estimates for more than 700 million evangelicals around the world. Importantly, it acknowledges that it overlaps with Pentecostal and charismatic traditions. It is virtually indistinguishable from evangelicalism in some contexts, and is only partially aligned in others.
World Christian Database ThreeFold Model
Zurlo has published another framework developed over nearly 20 years of research. Rather than relying on theological definitions, the world’s Christian database applies social-scientific categories to what is called “wider evangelicalism.” This model has three layers.
Type 1: Denominational Affiliation – A church officially affiliated with an evangelical council or organization generates approximately 393 million supporters. Already, almost half of them are in Africa.
Type 2: Pentecostal and Charismatic – Added to Type 1, the total will expand to 635 million. Scholars broadly agree that Pentecostals, even though they differ in certain doctrines, still share personal respect, conversion, and evangelical emphasis in the Bible.
Type 3: Majority World Protestant – including movements like the global South mainline Protestant, the American black Protestant church, and the Chinese house church that cannot be officially associated but exhibits evangelical characteristics. This adds 303 million.
To sum up, these three categories are 937 million evangelicals worldwide, one impressive in eight people on earth.
The challenges of contested boundary issues
Zurlo showed how categories are contested in examples all over the world.
In Brazil, the universal church of God’s Kingdom is one of the largest Neo-Pentecostal movements, claiming millions of members from over 200 countries. It emphasizes salvation, honor, and the Bible, but also relates to the teachings of prosperity and controversial financial practices. When Zurlo and her colleagues asked a Brazilian pastor how evangelical the church was, the answers ranged from 0% to 100%.
Similarly, African-American Protestant churches in the United States often align closely with evangelical beliefs and practices, but avoid labels due to their political and racial implications. Additionally, in China, where both registered and underground churches cannot formally participate in evangelical alliances, scholars estimate that 50% to nearly 100% of congregations can reasonably explain evangelicalism.
“Who’s going to decide?” Zurlo asked. For her, such examples underscore the need to move away from strict definitions and towards “family similarities” that explain overlapping traits across diverse contexts.
Converge the conclusion despite various methods
The Operation World and World Christian database uses a variety of approaches, both lead to the same comprehensive conclusion. Evangelicalism is no longer concentrated in the West.
Mandrick pointed out that by around 1980, evangelicals were already a majority in the southern part of the world. Today, 70% of the world’s population is born in the reality that evangelicalism is primarily African, Asian and Latin Americans.
“The stereotypes that dominate the headlines (white, western, English-speaking, politically conservative) don’t make evangelical seem global,” he said. “Evangelicals are Zulu, Chinese, Brazilians and Filipinos. That diversity is something to be celebrated.”
Zurlo’s numbers emphasize the same point. Her broadest definition is that 47% of evangelicals are in Africa, 26% are in Asia, and only 11% in North America. She said the country with the largest evangelical population is no longer China and not the United States.
For both scholars, demographic transitions demand humility and attention. Western Christians, long accustomed to defining the outline of evangelical identity, must recognize that demographic majority lie elsewhere.
“It’s not the kind of person who looks like me who should define identity markers for evangelical beliefs and practices,” Zurlo said. “Currently, Asians, Africans, Latinos and islanders represent the movement’s demographic center.”
Mandrik reflected this perspective and emphasized that the diversity of the evangelical movement reflects the diversity of the churches themselves around the world. “The body of Christ is incredibly diverse,” he said. “Evangelicalism is equally diverse in geography, theology and practice. It’s something to embrace.”
393 million to 937 million
So how many evangelicals are there? According to Zurlo, this answer lies between 393 million and 937 million, depending on how the term is defined. That wide range may be dissatisfaction, she admits, but it reflects the reality of movement that violates a neat classification.
For Mandrik, exact numbers are less important than what diversity represents. “All of these numbers are merely attempts by researchers to explain what God actually does on earth,” he said.
Both agreed that evangelicalism should be understood as a restricted category and less as a dynamic global family, joined by shared similarities rather than rigid definitions.
“Global evangelicalism is more diverse than you think,” Zurlo concluded. “Even so, we can all find our place in it. That’s its strength, not its weakness.”
