This is a very difficult time for real estate agents and homeowners looking to sell their homes. As documented below, sales of previously owned homes in the United States fell to the lowest level we saw in 2009-March.
Needless to say, in March 2009 we were in the midst of the Great Recession. Meanwhile, the number of unsold houses currently on the market continues to pile up. This could put a huge amount of downward pressure on home prices over the coming months.
Of course, the collapse of US home sales that we are witnessing right now did not actually begin during the Trump administration.
In 2024, Joe Biden was still in the White House, but sales of his former home reached its lowest level in almost 30 years.
There are final figures for home sales last year, and the story is very strict. 2024 was the latest year in existing home sales in nearly 30 years.
Last year, existing operating sales totaled 4.06 million, the lowest annual yearly basis since 1995, according to the National Realtors® Association.
A major factor behind the slowdown was the rise in mortgage rates, which spent most of the year above 6.5%.
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In 1995, 266 million people lived in the United States.
Today, 340 million people live in the United States.
Therefore, on a per capita basis, last year was even worse than in 1995.
And now, our problems seem to be accelerating. The number of previous homes for sale in March 2025 was even lower than in March 2024. In fact, I haven’t seen this bad march since 2009.
Rising mortgage rates and concerns about the broader economy have led to a weak start to the very important spring housing market.
Sales of homes owned before in March fell 5.9% from February on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, according to the National Association of Realtors. This is the slowest sales pace in March since 2009.
The housing market is falling.
No one can deny it.
Sales are declining despite the number of homes listed for sale rising at a very active rate.
Sales fell despite a sharp increase in the available list. At the end of March, 1.33 million units were on sale, an increase of nearly 20% since March 2024.
In Florida, the number of homes listed for sale has risen to the highest recorded level.
The number of homes in the Sunshine State market rose 23% in January, rising amid a decline in home purchases, an influx of newly built homes, strengthened natural disasters, and a surge in insurance costs and HOA fees.
Florida sold 172,209 in January. This is the best stock of any month in a record dating back to 2012. This is an increase of 22.7% from the previous year.
If the supply is very high but the demand is very low, it inevitably pushes prices down.
And we are already beginning to see condo prices drop sharply in some parts of the country.
Condos are often the first and largest movers in the local housing market. Many prices exploded in the three years from mid-2019 to mid-2022 peaks, including Austin, Texas. 70% including Tampa, Florida, Chula Vista in San Diego County, California. Or 80% of people like Mesa, Arizona, or Lakeland, Florida.
However, this absurdity is no longer glued, so the price is beginning to spiral. In Austin, which is at the forefront of the movement, prices have already given nearly two-thirds of a 60% three-year increase. 22% of people bought at the top in mid-2022 are underwater. Those who bought in mid-2019 are still sitting on a 20% profit that is shrinking.
Unless the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, home prices could drop significantly.
But of course the truth is that the Fed may soon be forced to start cutting rates as the economic situation is really beginning to get worse.
As prices drop, home prices could start to rise again.
There is a great deal of uncertainty in this economic environment.
But what we know is that a lot of our population is really struggling right now.
In fact, a new survey just released found that about two-fifths of all US adults under the age of 30 have little financial gain.
Young Americans have warned about their finances, with about two in five under the age of 30 saying they have “struggling to interact” or “passing through with limited security.”
This was found among those age group, women, Hispanics and without university degrees, who were most affected by financial anxiety, according to a survey of 2,096 adults aged 18-29, conducted by Harvard University’s Institute of Politics between March 14 and 25, 2025.
The times are tough.
Four years of bidenomics have caused incredible damage to our economy, but now consumers earn far less discretionary than ever before.
This is one of the reasons why so many restaurant chains are now in such deep economic troubles. This week, Jack in the Box learned to close “150-200 inadequate restaurants.”
Jack in the Box plans to close 150-200 inadequate restaurants on Wednesday, saying it could sell the Deltacos brand it acquired three years ago.
Currently operating 2,200 restaurants in 22 states currently operating on the West Coast and Midwest, the San Diego-based chain is set to close 80 to 120 locations by the end of 2025, and “low-performing restaurants that have since been closed on the end of each franchise agreement.”
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I hope I had more good news for you.
I really do.
But there is no denying what we are facing.
When the Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates, I warned that it would be absolutely devastating for the housing market.
And that’s exactly what happened. March 2025 was the worst home sales march since the Great Recession.
Hopefully, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. If they choose to do so, I’ll cheer.
But for now, we have real confusion in our hands.
The collapse of U.S. home sales is here, and so far the Federal Reserve has been sitting on the sidelines watching it happen.
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Michael Snyder’s new book is entitled “The Next Ten Prophecy Events.”
